Are contact tracing apps a thing of the past?
It’s time to enter the post-COVID world
Did it work?
To some extent, yes.Analysisof the NHS COVID-19 app’s performance from its launch up to December 2020 revealed that it helped control the spread of the virus in these early days. During this period, the app was used on a regular basis by roughly 28% of the population, preventing approximately 600,000 cases of COVID at a time when vaccines were unavailable and treatments limited.
However, the app wasn’t enough to stop transmission altogether. Cases rose during the autumn of 2020, pushing Britain into lockdown in November and again at the beginning of 2021. Limited uptake in turn limited the app’s impact.
Researchers estimated before its launch that it would be effective incontaining the virusonly if 60% of the total population (80% of smartphone users) used the app and adhered to the self-isolation advice delivered by it. At best, uptake was only about half what it needed to be.
And since this analysis was conducted, the nature of the pandemic has evolved. The app was launched prior to the emergence of the more transmissible alpha variant in the winter of 2020, and since then, delta and omicron have made COVID more transmissible still. People’s patterns of face-to-face interactions have changed, as restrictions have been lifted and vaccines have lessened the threat of COVID.
As we saw in the summer of 2021, changes to the virus and people’s behavior saw so many people being exposed and told to isolate by the app that manybegan to questionthe practicality of using it. The app’ssensitivity was turned downto try to lower the number of people being asked to isolate, but this will inevitably have lessened its ability to stop the virus from spreading.
As 2021 progressed, notifications sent by the appdeclined steadily. Cases, though, plateaued at a relatively high level – thereforepossibly indicatingthat fewer people had the app switched on and that many had given up on using it. That said, notifications did rise sharply again before last Christmas, indicating that plenty still had it switched on.
What next?
Existing research doesn’t give a firm indication of what impact a contact-tracing app might have in a future outbreak. But what we do know from the early stages of this pandemic is that this technology can help limit the virus’s spread. It’s therefore plausible that these apps could be used again if lowering cases of COVID (or perhaps even another disease) were necessary.
But what’s also clear is that a tool like this cannot be a substitute for other efforts. It needs to be used alongsideother key measures– such as face coverings, social distancing, and widespread and effective testing – to work well. If these apps return to widespread use, they would need to be part of a package of controls.
And if apps were to be relied on again, several issues would need careful attention. Firstly, there’s the question of personal data. Public concern about how personal data is used is high.People want to knowwho has access to data about them, to have more control over how organizations use their data, and to know where data about them is stored.
Surveyingshows that concerns about personal data use were lower in the context of controlling COVID. And previous research conducted in the UK found that people generally supported their personal data being used by others if it was for thepublic’s benefit. But if it’s not clear that resuming using these apps is beneficial, then maintaining support for them and driving uptake could be difficult.
Another issue to resolve is the unevenness of these apps’ use. With the NHS COVID-19 app, uptake wassignificantly loweramong the elderly, people from ethnic minorities, and those from disadvantaged areas, even though people in these groups are most at risk from the coronavirus.
If there were a pressing need to use these apps once again, it would be important to adopt strategies to increase use among these groups.Coming up with alternativesto involve those without smartphones – or who through age, disability, or lack of digital literacy are otherwise excluded – would also be important.
But of course, whether the UK will reach a point where it needs to try to contain cases through high use of these apps is hard to predict. Certainly in England, for now, the government’s plan seems to be to step away from trying to control viral transmission. It hasn’t, though, completely abandoned the NHS COVID-19 app. NHS Test and Trace havesigned a dealfor the ongoing development and support of the app until at least the end of 2022.
Article byItzelle A Medina-Perea, Postdoctoral Researcher, Information School,University of Sheffield
This article is republished fromThe Conversationunder a Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.
Story byThe Conversation
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