Digital sleuths are changing the course of the Ukraine war
But what exactly does open-source intelligence entail?
What does open-source intelligence involve?
The practice is best viewed as a spectrum of activities. At one end of the spectrum is what I term the “prospector approach”. Here, the analyst or investigator is like a gold prospector, carefully sifting through the informational mud of the internet in search of nuggets of gold – those fragments of information that will advance their understanding of a particular problem or puzzle. This is how many of those investigating aspects of the war in Ukraine are approaching their work.
To be successful, an aspiring open-source analyst needs to have a questioning mindset and good attention to detail. They need to become fluent in the various tools and techniques that can help refine searches and cut through irrelevant information (the Bellingcat website has some usefulresources). Language skills are a bonus, but much can be done with freely availabletranslation tools.
If they lack subject matter expertise, investigators need to be able to situate themselves in the informational context of the investigation – quickly identifying major and reliable sources of relevant information – and be willing to seek answers from others.
Finally, they need to give due regard to their digital footprint and consider the traces they leave in their pursuit of answers.
These are the basics and anyone can pick them up. There’s no requirement for prior training or qualifications. Bellingcat founderEliot Higginsis a good example of this. When he started his open-source work, Higgins had no experience as an investigator and no expertise in matters relating to conflict. He’s now regarded as one of the world’s leading open-source investigators.
At the other end of the spectrum, the approach is far more technical and relies on sophisticatedalgorithmsand machine learning to gather, filter, connect and manipulate data. This approach to open-source intelligence is less accessible as it requires the skills of computer scientists, statisticians, and engineers, as well as analysts and subject matter experts. But it offers a means of gathering and interrogating vast amounts of data at lightning speed – a valuable proposition given the dizzying rate at which the online information environment is expanding.
Open-source intelligence and the war
There are lots of ways open-source intelligence can help us understand how the conflict in Ukraine is playing out. One is its contribution to situational awareness. In the lead-up to the invasion, for example,videos postedto TikTok gave an insight into troop movements and build-up on the borders of Ukraine.
Since the invasion,videos uploadedto Telegram, combined withpublicly accessiblesatellite imagery, have been shedding light on particular attacks and the progress of Russian forces. The monitoring of vehicle license plates grabbed fromsocial mediais providinginformationabout the types of military vehicles deployed by the Russians, and their movements. Investigators even managed to intercept andpublishunencrypted radio transmission between Russian forces.
Open-source intelligence can also be used to support prosecutions ofhuman rights violationsand war crimes. For example, Bellingcat has been seeking totrackthe use of cluster munitions in the conflict. These weapons,prohibitedby many states, stand out because of thepain and sufferingthey cause. The Bellingcat team has been gathering, verifying, and geolocating videos shot on the ground in Ukraine and uploaded to social media.
Another area of open-source intelligence activity involves countering disinformation. Social media has been flooded with false information – claims of hoaxes, the use ofcrisis actorsand a broader narrative of Ukrainian provocations are all part of efforts to sow confusion and distort public perceptions of the conflict. Open-source intelligence researchers have played an important role in debunking false claims and exposingdisinformation.
Of course, there are plenty of challenges to navigate. All information must be carefully assessed and verified. What is the source? Is the information accurate? Are there any potential risks of using the data? For example, could using photos posted on an individual’s social media account in published analysis pose a risk to that person if they’re identified as the source of the photos?
On a broader level, it’s important to remember that open-source information can be accessed by all sides in any conflict. The desire to protect citizens in this context explains why GoogledisabledMaps features in Ukraine showing live traffic data and how busy places like shops and restaurants are.
These are just some of the challenges and they shouldn’t be lightly dismissed. On balance, however, the value of open-source intelligence far outweighs any drawbacks. This has been clearly demonstrated during the war in Ukraine so far.
This article byMatthew Moran, Professor of International Security,King’s College Londonis republished fromThe Conversationunder a Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.
Story byThe Conversation
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