MIT researchers use AI to predict the next big things in tech
They analyzed nearly all of the US patent system
Predicting the future
The team used a new probability-based algorithm,machine learning, natural language processing, and patent network analytics to predictthe performance improvement rates of different technologies.
They first divided the patents into 1,757 discrete technology domains. Each of these was comprised of inventions thatfulfill a specific function using a distinct branch of scientific knowledge.
The researchers then estimated theaverage “centrality” of patents in each domain. This calculation encompasses multiple criteria to determine the importance of different nodes within a patent citation network.
Per the study paper:
The results were used to make predictions on each domain’s annual performance improvement.
Investment opportunities
The improvement rates varied from2% per year for “Mechanical skin treatment — Hair removal and wrinkles” to 216% per annum for “Dynamic information exchange and support systems integrating multiple channels.”
On average, technology improvements were forecast at a rate of 19% per annum.
“The domains that show improvement rates greater than the predicted rate for integrated chips, from Moore’s law, are predominantly based upon software and algorithms,” the researchers wrote. “In addition, the rates of improvement were not a strong function of the patent set size.”
Technologies relating to the internet in general and enterprise network management in particular were also predicted to rapidly advance.
This suggests that investors, firms, or countries seeking productivity gains should focus their investments in these areas. However, the analysis may have missed some powerful emerging technologies, as the researchers discarded domains withfewer than 100 patents.
Nonetheless, the method could enhance the accuracy of technology forecasting. Let’s just hope no one figures out a way to game the system.
You can read the open-access study paperhere.
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Story byThomas Macaulay
Thomas is a senior reporter at TNW. He covers European tech, with a focus on AI, cybersecurity, and government policy.Thomas is a senior reporter at TNW. He covers European tech, with a focus on AI, cybersecurity, and government policy.
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