Think China will dominate the EV market? You’re probably wrong
There’s a whole list of reasons why
The future of EVs
This problem matters even more for EVs than for cars, because of the profound difference between the two. The car is a comparatively simple machine. It’s basically an engine on wheels, with various additions to make it more enticing – and comfortable – for its driver and passengers. The EV, by comparison, is a totally new technology that’s part of a much larger, unpredictabletransitioninurban mobility.
Simply replacing cars with EVs will not solve congestion ortransport inequalitiesin society. And EVs will create challenging environmental problems of their own, such as the pollution created by producing and recyclingEV batteries. Plus, EVs themselves still have a long way toevolve, making political and cultural misgivings about China’s role in creating them more important.
For instance, cars have been widely associated with individual freedom: one of the main reasons for their global popularity. Their digitization threatens to make the EV a vehicle for unprecedented levels of surveillance and control of people’s mobility.
In a 2015 experiment, two hackers were able totake controlof a reporter’s car and remotely direct its steering wheel. Situations like these could well generate fears around authoritarian control and reduced privacy, further diminishing Chinese EVs’ appeal overseas.
Finally, the motorcar emerged at the moment of discovery of a seemingly boundless energy source –oil– and when concern for the effect of itswaste productswas largely absent.
Today, in contrast, a major driver of the EV transition is itssustainability, meaning that the environmental impact of mass EV adoption will be closely scrutinized by customers and citizens worldwide. Chinese companies hoping to enter overseas markets seem to bepoorly preparedto manage such controversy.
Currently, therefore, the most likely scenario seems not to be unrivaled Chinese EV leadership. China will be a major player in the EV if only given the size of its domestic market and the level of government support it provides its EV industry. Yet this will increasingly be matched by intensifying competition with Western companies that are beginning to take the EV seriously – and that may be better placed to manage the complex social and political hurdles ahead for this new technology.
Article byDavid Tyfield, Professor in Sustainable Transitions and Political Economy,Lancaster University
This article is republished fromThe Conversationunder a Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.
Story byThe Conversation
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