What really happened during Russia’s anti-satellite missile test?
The results could cause serious damage in space and on Earth
What do we know?
Anti-satellite weapons, commonly referred to as ASATs, are any weapon that can temporarily impair or permanently destroy an orbiting satellite. The one that Russia just tested is known as adirect ascent kinetic anti-satellite weapon.Russia launched an anti-satellite testthat destroyed one of its older satellites. The satellite broke up and created thousands of pieces of debris in orbit, ranging in size from tiny specks up to pieces a few feet across. This space junk will linger in orbit for years, potentially colliding with other satellites as well as the International Space Station. Thespace station crew has already had to shelterin place as they passed near the debris cloud.
What’s an anti-satellite weapon?
Anti-satellite weapons, commonly referred to as ASATs, are any weapon that can temporarily impair or permanently destroy an orbiting satellite. The one that Russia just tested is known as adirect ascent kinetic anti-satellite weapon. These are usually launched from the ground or from the wings of an airplane and destroy satellites by running into them at high speeds.
A similar weapon type, calledco-orbital anti-satellite weapons, are first launched into orbit and then change direction to collide with the targeted satellite from space.
A third type,non-kinetic anti-satellite weapons, use technology like lasers to disrupt satellites without physically colliding with them.
Space agencies have beendeveloping and testing anti-satellite weaponssince the 1960s. To date, theU.S.,Russia,ChinaandIndiahave demonstrated the ability to attack satellites in orbit that support services like GPS, communications and weather forecasting.
Why is debris a problem?
Regardless of the cause, space debris is a serious problem.
Larger pieces are easier to track and avoid but it’s difficult to track pieces smaller than 4 inches (10 centimeters). Even small debris can still pose a major threat though. Space debrisis often traveling faster than 17,000 mpharound the Earth. At that speed, pieces of debris could destroy any spacecraft or satellite it collided with. In the 1980s,a Soviet satellite broke upas a result of a suspected debris strike.
More worrisome is the danger debris poses to crewed space missions. In July 2021, one of the International Space Station’srobotic arms was struckby a piece of debris that put a 0.2-inch (0.5 cm) hole clean through a part of the arm. While the damage did not need to be fixed, officials characterized it as a lucky strike – if it had struck a different part of the station, the situation could have been a lot worse.
Space debris is also a significant threat to people on Earth. Satellites play a vital role in the global economy through GPS, communications and weather data. If services such as these were disrupted, there would besignificant economic cost. One study found that a GPS outage couldcost the U.S. up to $1 billion a day.
There are currentlythousands of pieces of space junkcircling the Earth, with sources as varied as old rocket bodies, dead satellites, debris from previous collisions and tests, and lost items from astronauts. The problem – like with the environment – is that there islittle incentive for individual countriesto avoid generating debris or clean it up.
The amount of space debris has only increased over time. For years, scientists have been warning about the possibility of a collision cascade.As the amount of debris increases, the chance of collisions between it and other satellites and debris also goes up. More collisions might then leave certain orbits completely unusable. While this could take decades to play out, events like the Russian test will only make such an outcome more likely.
What to do now?
In the short term, little can be done to mitigate this new cloud of space debris, but anyone with anything in space is on high alert to avoid it.
The U.S. government and commercial companies are tracking the new debris, and the crew on the International Space Station have beenordered to keep certain modules closed offas they continue to pass through the debris cloud. As the new debris spreads out and the pieces are tracked, station controllers will have a better understanding of the danger posed to the crew.
In the long run,experts recommendworking on global solutions to remove debris. This includes taking measures to prevent debris in the first place and removing debris that is already in space. Several governmental and international organizations haveproposed ways to prevent new debris, but these are informal and not legally binding.
Remediation is a tougher challenge. Technology to remove debris has not yet been fully developed, but even still, itsdeployment is a sensitive subject. The same technology that might be used to remove a piece of space junk could also be used for attacking a satellite. This dual-use technology poses challenges, as it can raise suspicions thatcountries are testinganti-satellite weapons under the cover of debris removal.
Despite the difficulties, there is growing international recognition that space debris is a dangerous problem. A consortium of private companies recently created theNet Zero Space charterto reduce debris, and theU.S. Space Force is looking for waysto combat the problem as well. While the world still does not yet have a full understanding of Russia’s actions, this event is a wake-up call on the importance of efforts to reduce pollution in Earth’s orbit.
Article byWendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies,US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies
This article is republished fromThe Conversationunder a Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.
Story byThe Conversation
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